X-OUT Corona

Prediction of the longterm growth of the Corona Virus in different countries as well as comparison of the different approaches each government has chosen based on each country's circumstances

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Inspiration

We felt like we can help the world and contribute to this situation by using our skill set to think of a way to manage this pandemic that can be utilised or inspire other people to build something that works; not just for now, but for the future

What it does

Our tool would help the users predict the outcome of any pandemic using some key data points that we believe are essential in realistically simulate the curve of infection, recovery

How we built it

We used the SEIR model as the basis for our prediction, particularly the classical implementation of the model and added a responsive UI on top with parameters (such as growth rate) that the users can change to see the impact on the prediction. We realised that we need to enhance the mathematical calculations of the model to include additional parameters that we captured, and we believe that they are key to the prediction, such as:

  • The health maturity and capability of each country
  • Number of hospital beds per 1000 citizens for each country
  • Population Density levels
  • Education and Poverty levels
  • Even with statistics such as government authoritative levels and how influential it is on people such as implementing lock-downs efficiently

This provides a decision tool based on key direct influencing features on managing this pandemic and any future pandemic.

Challenges we ran into

Being able to modify the mathematical formula for the base model, it is something we still looking to do as we could not complete this in a timely manner, not to mention the different sleep rhythms in the team:D

Accomplishments that we're proud of

We have learned a lot, worked together, collected some very good data points and build a good robust UI and gained lots of new knowledge about growth of microorganisms as well as its simulation

What we learned

Each of us learned for themselves where our strengths lie, what we enjoy doing and what our weaknesses are. We learned lots of new models, how to and where to get reliable data and how to make right, pragmatic decisions in a short time. We learned how to work effectively as a team.

What's next for X-OUT Corona

We would like to continue to build on this tool and bring some of this insights to the world to be better prepared for the future. We realise that our generation has been too spoiled, we don't really know how to deal with this and we did not take researchers warnings about an upcoming pandemic serious. We have to have some preparedness tool-set for the world and humanity.

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