Virus spread prediction model based on cellular automata

To overcome the problem, it is important to keep control and realize what is happening. A system that was developed to predict the spread of viruses in society can help control pandemic and save lives

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Inspiration

One of my early scientific works was to model the spread of controversial information in society. Viruses are, in fact, also carriers of information. The spread of information is similar to the spread of viruses, which gave rise to the idea of changing the existing model to be virus-oriented.

What it does

The system simulates the spread of the virus in a society with predefined characteristics. In the context of a Covid-19 pandemic, the characteristics may be: unauthorized walking on the street, washing hands, preparedness of hospitals, aggressiveness of the virus, etc.

How I built it

The basis is John Conway's cellular machine "Game of Life", for the universality of the model were introduced additional rules for working with the cellular field. To work with an array of the cell field is used python library numpy, to implement charts and directly dynamic model is used matplotlib library.

Challenges I ran into

One of the complex stages was the selection of parameters to be taken into account in the model, as well as the organization of the cell field in the model. The last task was complicated because in real life people did not walk on the "cell field", the space was closed, and modeling the movement of people was a complex modeled process.

Accomplishments that I'm proud of

I am pleased that my model really allows predicting the spread of the virus in a certain region.

What I learned

During the development of the model, I studied the theory of cellular automata and its application in the context of modeling the spread of viruses in society. I also gained experience in developing mathematical models from idea to final model.

What's next for Virus spread prediction model based on cellular automata

In the context of modeling the spread of viruses, there are many important factors to consider, some of which are not obvious. Therefore further improvement of model, by revealing nuances, is actual. Besides optimization of process and acceleration of process of modelling too is important aspect of improvement of a product.

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