Prediction markets are only as good as the information flowing into them. Right now, that information is mostly mainstream financial media — the same Bloomberg terminals, the same Reuters feeds, the same analyst reports everyone else is reading.
But the sharpest calls on prediction markets don't come from institutions. They come from a rationalist blogger who's been publicly calibrating their forecasts since 2014. A macro analyst on Substack who called BTC $100k eighteen months early. A former Fed economist writing on Beehiiv with 3,000 readers.
These people exist. They've been right. Nobody has a systematic way to find them or verify their track record.
What We Built
Verifeed is a prediction market intelligence terminal that surfaces independent forecasters, scores their historical accuracy, and tells you what the credibility-weighted consensus says — before the market catches up.
For each open market, we aggregate forecaster views weighted by their backtested track record:
$$P_{\text{consensus}} = \frac{\sum_{i} s_i \cdot p_i}{\sum_{i} s_i}$$
Where the divergence from market price is the signal:
$$\text{edge} = P_{\text{consensus}} - P_{\text{Kalshi}}$$
How We Built It
Yutori Research crawls the web to discover independent forecasters writing about each market — Substacks, personal blogs, LessWrong, Beehiiv — sources that never show up in a Bloomberg search. Tavily retrieves their actual articles. An LLM extracts their past predictions and verifies outcomes. Every credibility score is derived from real resolved calls, not vibes.
The result: a live feed of who's bullish, who's bearish, why, and whether they've earned the right to have an opinion.
Challenges
The hardest part isn't the tech — it's that good independent forecasters are deliberately hard to find. They don't have PR teams. That's what makes them valuable. Yutori was the unlock. Without deep web research, we'd just be scraping the same mainstream sources everyone else uses, which defeats the entire point.
Built With
- fastapi
- python
- render
- tavily
- yutori
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