The insight is the the current infection and death numbers are grossly misleading for the following reasons:
- it is a random sample of the population
- it doesn't integrate GPS self-reporting with testing priority
- in addition to IR thermometer, symptom monitoring, and RT-PCR, there is the $10 15-min antibody kit which can be integrated into the process if there is a good statistical model of the current people who are infected
We live in a world where you can send a message to anyone in the world in less than a second, and yet the people are modeling death numbers which are very crude and after the fact. It should in fact be more like spam filter, where each email is flagged, spam or not spam, with scoring based on every factor that comes to your mind, where ML is useful.
In 2070, when there is an coronavirus jumps to humans, only the ones who are at risk will enter a 5-star quarantine facility. There will be no lockdown, social distancing. Even with the same testing tools available to us today, effective models of current individual carriers and contact tracing application will give a highly specific path of eliminating the virus. The goal is to make this today.
What it does
I had an idea to track COVID19 cases using a combination of IR thermometer for day 5, antibody test kit for day 3, and RT-PCR for day 1, combined with GPS, self-reporting contact tracing app and a machine learning model.
The idea was to identify the next areas and people who should receive the various tests, PPE, and vaccine trials based on statistical models combined with connected smartphones.
How I built it
Being Asymptomatic to Symptomatic takes 5-6 days even some time near 14 days in most of the cases ! During this period if this person moves around in crowd places their is high chance Virus as been spread unknowingly ! That's the reason all suspected asked to go on Home Quarantine for #4 days.
Yes, IR thermometers are not very useful. I wonder if RT-PCR or antibody test kit can detect in the first 4 days
Antibody test kit can makes sense ! Overall their is need to increase test coverage ASAP and plan Actions. Currently SWAB tests are done only After 5-6 days ! Worth to go for Early test like Antibody tests. is such kits used already ?
yes, China and many countries made the antibody rapid test kit: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/bangladesh-scientists-create-3-kit-detect-covid-19-200323035631025.html
aljazeera.comaljazeera.com Bangladesh scientists create $3 kit. Can it help detect COVID-19? Bangladesh pharma regulator allows mass production of dot blot test kit but researchers say it has its limitations.
However, it can only detect after a few days (not exactly sure how many), so there was a blanket ban on selling them in some countries https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/coronavirus-testing-kits-could-be-unreliable-uk-scientists-say
the Guardianthe Guardian Coronavirus 'game changer' testing kits could be unreliable, UK scientists say Concern continues over whether government’s virus pledges stand up to scrutiny Apr 6th
NST OnlineNST Online Health Ministry: Covid-19 'rapid test kit' not recommended for early detection PUTRAJAYA: Health director-general Datuk Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah today cautioned that a 'rapid test kit' (RTK) being sold in the market could not help with the early detection of Covid-19. Mar 25th (90 kB) https://assets.nst.com.my/images/articles/test_kit-MS2403_NSTfield_image_socialmedia.var_1585052928.jpg 11:32 But a machine learning model can combine the error probabilities, combined with individual level GPS self-reporting to identify the next most likely candidate to test
Challenges I ran into
Accomplishments that I'm proud of
What I learned
What's next for The Virus Monitor
TRACK: Health & Wellness Challenges:
- by The European Commisision - Coordinated systems for the prioritisation of testing and vaccinations and virus transmission
- Estonian Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications - Social distancing app
- by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control - Public health measures