SmartBuy — AI Decision Support System for Raw Materials

E-Hub × Damm Hackathon 2026

Should we buy now, wait, hedge, or monitor?

What we do

SmartBuy is a Decision Support System that transforms raw commodity price data, energy signals, satellite indicators, and real-time news into a single actionable procurement recommendation per raw material — with full explainability at every step.

It is not a price forecasting tool. It is a procurement timing engine built specifically for a company that buys, not trades.

Four possible recommendations

Action	Meaning	When triggered
BUY	Order now at current price	Price below average + supply risk rising + trend up
WAIT	Delay purchase	Price falling + supply comfortable + no urgency
HEDGE	Lock in current price via forward contract	Supply risk HIGH but price uncertain
MONITOR	No action needed	Stable conditions — reassess in 5–7 days

Materials Covered

Material	Model	Key Signal
Aluminium	5-layer specialist model	China 45Mt cap utilisation
Barley	5-layer specialist model	NDVI + Protein Paradox
vPET	Generic 4-component model	Oil price correlation
rPET	Generic 4-component model	EU 30% mandate compliance
Energy (TTF)	Generic 4-component model	Strait of Hormuz / LNG disruption

Strategic Decision Drivers

Aluminium: Supply Rigidity & Energy

China’s 45Mt Cap: Tracks the legal production ceiling in China. As utilization nears 96%, supply becomes inelastic, making prices hyper-sensitive to demand shocks.
Energy Input Delta: Monitors the spread between EU Electricity prices (smelter viability) and China Coal (global cost floor) to determine regional supply shifts.
Yunnan Hydropower Proxy: Real-time rainfall monitoring in China's smelting hubs to anticipate power-related supply curtailments before they hit the LME.

Barley: Quality & Climate Yield

The Protein/Quality Gap: Predicts the availability of Malting-grade vs. Feed-grade barley. High-temperature forecasts during June are flagged as a risk to grain quality, even if total harvest volume remains high.
Fertilizer Link: Correlates Natural Gas (TTF) fluctuations with future harvest yields via nitrogen fertilizer affordability and farmer planting intentions.

FinBERT News Scoring

Real headlines fetched daily from Google News RSS, classified using HuggingFace's ProsusAI/finbert model. Procurement signal derived from aggregate sentiment, not individual headlines.

Data Sources

Source	Material	Type
Yahoo Finance (ALI=F)	Aluminium	Live
OMIP / TradingEconomics	Energy / TTF	Reference
ICIS Europe	vPET, rPET	Reference
Expana / Black Sea	Barley	Reference
LME Warrant Report	Aluminium	Weekly
MIIT / China NBS	Aluminium	Monthly
JRC MARS / Copernicus	Barley	Monthly
FRED (IMF/World Bank)	All (history)	Monthly
Google News RSS + FinBERT	All	Daily
Cala.ai	All	On demand