General statistics page
Crime location likelihoods
Crime category likelihoods
With college campus' increased focus on student safety in recent years, we desired to analyze crime rates in notable college towns.
The web application uses a feed-forward neural network to predict, given a specific month, day of week, and time, the probability of a crime occurring for all the major ZIP codes in the area. These probabilities are then visualized via a heat map of the town. A similar neural network calculates the probabilities for different types of crime. Additionally, other interesting crime statistics calculated with conventional methods are provided. The user can interface with the application via either a traditional web-app or an SMS chatbot.
The application's neural networks were implemented using Microsoft Cognitive Toolkit (CNTK). Google's Maps API along with its Geocoding API are used to display the heat map. The Twilio API provides the SMS user interface while the actual chatbot is powered by IBM's Watson Conversation API. R was used to provide additional statistics of interest.
Finding a large, quality data set was difficult; even the best data set found, one for Tucson, AZ, was missing many ZIP codes. This required using latitude and longitude data in the file along with Google's Geocoding API to determine the missing ZIP codes. While the machine learning model proved to be most accurate in predicting the ZIP codes for crimes, the same could not be said for its predictions of crime types. This is likely due to the many different categories of crime in the data set and the consequent difficulty of traing a classification model with so many probabilities to calculate.
Using the Twilio and Watson APIs to provide the SMS user interface was a unique and new challenge for the team. The same goes for deploying the web application's many different parts and seamlessly integrating them.
When evaluated on the test portion of the data set, the machine learning model achieved an approximately 80% accuracy in choosing the ZIP code where a crime occured. As for the program itself, the ability to use the application via both the browser and SMS makes for an excellent user interface.
Though the team had experience training machine learning models, deploying one as part of an application was a new challenge. The team gained significant experience with the technologies mentioned and learned how to combine data science and web development talent.
The current application employs a dataset on crime statistics in Tucson, AZ, but there are excellent data sets for other university towns as well, such as Baton Rouge, LA and College Park, MA. Additionally, to obtain better predictions on types of crime, the data sets for multiple universities could be combined (in contrast to the ZIP code model, which depends specifically on location).
Try out the SMS interface by texting to (662) 200-4204!