Inspired by the video of 3blue1brown, Simulating an Epidemic, we aim to refine and extend the simulator in order to investigate and illustrate the possible effects of various deconfinement strategies.
Our git repository! :)
What it does
Check out our detailed scenarios and videos in these slides.
Extend the original simulation with deconfinement-related scenarios such as
- Progressive deconfinement of various populations on the span of several weeks (e.g. recovered people first, specific age group first, or specific workforce first).
- Opening specific places as schools.
- Tracking and quarantining of cases to avoid a new epidemic peak. (WIP)
- Alternance of deconfinement and confinement periods based on some criterion (e.g number of sick).
- Partial deconfinement where certain sanitary measures are kept for much longer than others (e.g. forbid large gatherings).
- Progressive deconfinement by regions.
Use the simulation to gain some early insights on deconfinement questions
- How large of a herd immunity is needed to avoid a new epidemic peak ?
- How early can the confinement measures be relaxed ?
Provide videos of simulations of several of those toy-scenarios and their impact, with the goal of bringing sensibilisation/reflexion of the public towards the important aspects of a deconfinement process.
How did we built it
We are a team of computational (not exactly the same as computer) scientists and a vet. We are building on top of the fabulous 3blue1brown original simulator. This original work is amazing and all the credit goes to the developers of Manim and of course, 3blue1brown.
Challenges we ran into
On top of the challenges of diving into already implemented code, and being 72hours together but apart (stay home, stay safe!), our main challenges remain abstracting policies into the simulation, and achieving illustrative scenarios.
If you see yourself working with us, join us! If you want to continue to build on top, join us! Help us spread illustrations of possible scenarios and policies in these strange times!