Predictive Modeling of Hurricane Tracks

• 

  output of hurricane harvey2017 and katrina2005

Inspiration

I was born in New Orleans and I know the impact hurricanes can have on peoples lives. I was thinking, if we can better predict the behaviors of mother nature, we can save a lot of time, money and lives. Although better predictive models exist, I wanted to try my hand at this problem by applying some of the concepts I learned at UTA.

What it does

Given a hurricane's current position, max wind and classification, predict where it will be in the future.

How we built it

I built it using matlab and in about 5 hours of time (including research). It uses hurdat2 dataset and Matlab's fitlm() function to create a linear model which takes in current, position, max wind and classification to output predicted coordinates. I then plotted those coordinates using geoshow().

Challenges we ran into

Getting the dataset into matlab was harder than expected.

Accomplishments that we're proud of

I learned alot about Matlab and all of it's cool libraries .

What we learned

I learned about the existence of LTSM which is a deep learning model which would probably be better suited for this problem.

What's next for Predictive Modeling of Hurricane Tracks

I plan to try and increase model accuracy by perhaps using a different model or switching variables.

Built With

• matlab