We decided to use the SIR model and are evaluating whether we can predict the evolution of Ebola by region and whether we can identify which regional covariates are associated with the growth rate of Ebola cases. We are trying to predict the rate of growth in selected regions given the number of cases and deaths discovered in the past months.
Our model is still in its preliminary stage - it predicts well on the national level but not as so well on the regional level. We have attached three graphs that show the fit of our model for the number of cases in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. As a next step, we would like to modify our SIR model to fit the sigmoid-like growth and fit the parameters of the SIR model as a global function of the regional covariates, which will hopefully shed light on the impact of the various socio-economic factors on the outbreak of Ebola.
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