Polymarket Event Risk Manager

Inspiration

We were inspired by the recent case of NBA player Giannis, who recently announced his stake in kalshi after being the subject of a popular bet

What it does

For popular events placed on these markets, we calculate the risk score of each event, the chance of it being insider traded, this is then displayed to the user with some other useful metrics for the user

How we built it

We used the poly market api as well as some social media apis like reddit and google trends with wrappers to access data related to the metrics we measure: Whale Concentration, whether a small fraction of traders dominates volume compared to benchmarks in the same category. Speculation, whether trading activity (trades/volume since market start) is disproportionately high compared to Reddit mentions over the same time window.

Challenges we ran into

Data reliability and rate limits (Reddit/third-party endpoints can be slow/flaky). Defining a fair benchmark set for comparison across different market types. Avoiding false accusations: the tool flags risk signals, not proven insider trading. Trade-level wallet data availability can vary, requiring fallbacks and proxies.