Models for Covid-aware life strategies

Inspiration

We are a group doing quantitative modelling in financial markets for a large financial institution in UK. We build models to measure financial risk-reward for decision making done by financial institutions.

Society will need to learn new behaviours to manage the new Covid risk and balance the risk of infection with the reward of carrying on with their life. Society should not stop, but should learn to manage the Covid risk within acceptable levels.

As an example, cars are dangerous, byt we still choose to drive cars because of their benefit to society, but we also choose to have speed limits to manage the risk of incurring in an accident, getting injured and possibly die.

Models can help measure that risk-reward for society.

What it does

We look at both Macro exit strategies (eg nation wide policies managed by the government ) and Micro exit strategies (local behaviou policies managed by large and small companies) and map out data with models in order to advise on the risk-reward trade off of different choices.

Government can use the model to inform policies. Companies can use the model to optimise working schedule, patterns and behaviours. Models provide a risk-reward function, users will then use the model to set limits at what they believe the acceptable risk level should be.

How I built it

We plan to build the model open source in python and make this available as an app, both desktop and mobile. An open source project which will evolve over time as we learn more from Covid, as we collect more data and as we learn from experiments.