Inspiration
In building their rosters, Major League Soccer clubs must operate within a complex regulatory structure. Clubs are restricted in the amount they may spend on player wages, the mechanisms through which they may acquire these players, and the number of international players they may include on the roster. This regulatory structure has created a unique economy in which non-player assets are often traded between teams as they respectively position themselves to acquire and retain players.
The use of trading of International Roster Spots is an interesting example of this unique market. Players on U.S. MLS clubs are considered domestic if they are U.S. citizens or Green Card holders, all other players are considered international and must occupy an International Roster Spot. All clubs are allocated eight International Roster Spots for each season, though they may trade these Spots amongst themselves.
These International Roster Spots naturally provide value in flexibility. Teams looking to fill a particular role on the team have more options when they may choose between both domestic and international players. In the 2017 season, teams tended to trade $50,000 to $75,000 for an International Roster Spot. In 2018, that number has increased to north of $100,000. While this seems to be the market value of an International Roster Spot, it’s certainly fair to ask, is it worth it?
What it does
By comparing the salaries of international and domestic players, our tool helps determine just how valuable the flexibility offered by an International Roster Spot is. Further, we segment our analysis by both on-field role and quality. For example, an International Roster Spot might be more valuable applied toward an elite defensive midfielder, of which there are few inexpensive domestic options, than toward an average goalkeeper, of which there are many inexpensive domestic options.
How we built it
Employed clustering of on-field data to group players with similar on-field roles taking into account features including location of passes, frequency of defense actions, among others.
Used the FIFA rating system to stratify players into three tiers (rotational, average, and elite) based on overall quality, within each on-field role.
For cohorts of players with the same on-field role and quality (i.e. all rotational full backs or all elite off-the-shoulder forwards), identified the least expensive domestic option by yearly salary, as the least expensive option among all players, both domestic and international. The difference between the least expensive option of all players and the least expensive option of domestic players represents the option value of the International Roster Spot applied at that particular role and quality tier.
Created an interactive web application allowing clubs to select from drop-down menus the desired role and quality of the roster spot they’re looking to fill. Then, by pressing the ‘Search’ button, they can view the MLS players and respective salaries available to them with and without an International Roster Spot, ranked from least to most expensive. Finally, the tool calculates and displays the theoretical savings offered by the flexibility of the International Roster Spot at that particular combination of role and quality.
Challenges we ran into
We had difficulty merging five different data sets (all of which offered different, yet important information for our project) that in some cases had different listed names for players.
We were challenged to find the optimal number of clusters that was both small enough to allow us to both work with an already small sample size of players but large enough to allow for clustering into nuanced roles.
Accomplishments that we're proud of
Creating an interactive tool that an MLS General Manager or other decision-maker could reasonably operate, understand, and derive significant value from.
Performing rigorous statistical clustering taking into account a variety of on-field performance features.
Developing a framework through which non-player aspects of the MLS roster regulatory system can be valued.
What we learned
We learned that the value of an International Roster Spot varies significantly from role to role and quality, due to the relative availability of domestic players at each role and level of quality. For example, the combination of role and quality for which use of an International Roster Spot offers the most value is elite center forwards, at a value of roughly $230,000. This makes sense intuitively as elite American center forwards playing domestically are difficult to come by, and those that are available are generally national team players with high salaries due partially to significant commercial value. On the other hand, we find that an International Roster Spot offers essentially no value when used on an average center back. This is also intuitive because there is a significant supply of average MLS American center backs.
- We learned that positional coordinates are critical to analysis of player roles and tendencies.
What's next for MLS International Roster Spot Valuation Tool
Ultimately, this tool is the first step in a new method of valuing aspects of the MLS roster regulatory system. This type of analysis can offer clubs critical insight as they trade non-player assets within the MLS economy. Critically, while this particular tool focuses on International Roster Spots, the methodology is applicable to other types of assets, such as draft picks and allocation money.
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