Kelly

Most people on Polymarket bet their gut. We built a tool that tells you mathematically how much to bet — and on what. We pull live odds from Polymarket's API and apply the Kelly Criterion — the same formula professional gamblers and hedge funds use to size positions. But we went further than standard Kelly. Standard Kelly treats each bet independently. Our tool solves the full multivariate problem: maximize the expected log of your total bankroll across all positions simultaneously, using gradient ascent optimization. What that means practically: if you think Spain has a 28% chance of winning the World Cup but the market says 15% — we don't just say 'bet X%.' We calculate exactly how much to allocate to Spain relative to every other bet you're making, accounting for the fact that they all compete for the same capital. The result is a portfolio optimizer for prediction markets. You bring your edge. We handle the math.

Built With

• claude
• github
• polymarket
• vercel