FRCT – Forecast-Routed Cross-Chain Treasury

Onchain CFO that routes USDC treasuries between Base and Solana using Polymarket forecasts and Circle’s CCTP in one simple dashboard.

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Inspiration

Most DAOs and crypto-native startups have six to twelve months of runway sitting passively on a single chain and in a single risk posture. Treasury management is usually a mix of spreadsheets, manual bridges, and “vibes” about the macro environment. At the same time, prediction markets and native USDC infrastructure exist but are rarely combined into a real decision tool.

FRCT (“Forecast-Routed Cross-Chain Treasury”) was born from a simple question: what would an onchain CFO look like if it actually used prediction markets as a brain and USDC as the bloodstream?

What FRCT does

FRCT is an onchain treasury cockpit for DAOs and startups. It:

  • Holds USDC on Base and Solana as two vaults.
  • Continuously pulls Polymarket forecasts for curated macro and crypto markets.
  • Converts those probabilities into a simple risk score and regime (Defensive / Neutral / Aggressive).
  • Suggests and executes rebalancing of USDC between Base and Solana using Circle’s CCTP.
  • Exposes a path to pay real-world expenses via Circle payments APIs.

The treasurer sees the full cross-chain position in one dashboard and can update their risk posture in a single click.

How we built it

  • A Solidity vault contract on Base holds USDC.e and stores allocation targets.
  • A simple Anchor program on Solana owns an SPL USDC vault account.
  • The risk engine is a Node/TypeScript service (Next.js API route) that calls the Polymarket Gamma API, computes a risk score from multiple markets, and returns recommended Base/Solana percentages.
  • Circle CCTP and Bridge Kit are used to move USDC between Base and Solana, burning on the source chain and minting on the destination.
  • The front end is built with Next.js, React, TypeScript, OnchainKit, Wagmi and Viem, showing balances, risk gauges, and one-click rebalancing flows.

Challenges

  • Designing a risk model that is simple enough for a 3-minute demo but still grounded in real Polymarket probabilities.
  • Orchestrating cross-chain UX so that Base and Solana balances feel like one treasury instead of two separate apps.
  • Integrating multiple moving parts (Polymarket, Circle, Base, Solana) under tight time constraints without over-engineering.

What we learned

  • Prediction markets are an excellent primitive for treasury policy, not just speculation.
  • Circle’s CCTP plus USDC on Base and Solana make “native” cross-chain treasury surprisingly feasible.
  • Good UX for treasurers is not about fancy charts, but about clear regimes (“You are currently Defensive”) and safe, explainable actions (“Move 20% of USDC from Solana to Base”).

What’s next

  • Make the risk model configurable per organization (different risk appetites).
  • Add real automation (scheduled checks and suggested rebalances).
  • Plug into real DAOs and onchain teams to use FRCT as their primary treasury cockpit.

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