Humans really suck at estimating the probability of things. Even worse, we don’t remember our predictions; when we say we’re 99% sure, we’re don’t remember that we’re wrong 40% of the time. Fortuit aims to help people correct inaccuracies in their probability estimations by keeping track of how their predictions correspond to reality.
To use Fortuit, you make predictions about events by giving the event a description and selecting how likely you think the event’s occurrence is. For example, I might predict that “I will be done my algebra assignment by Friday” with probability 75%. Later, I come back and tell Fortuit whether or not the event actually happened, and it updates my score accordingly. The data from many predictions over time is summarized in a graph generated for each user.
Fortuit also has a basic social system in place. You can see your friends’ statistics and what their making predictions about, and you can also make predictions about your friends’ events.
In the future, we would like to add recurring events and automatically generated events based on data such as the weather or the stock market. The more predictions users make, the more accurate and insightful their statistics. Having a constant stream of events to make predictions about takes the burden off the user for coming up with things to predict.