Just Deviced a new strategy for my AI bot called ASP Strategy (Adaptive Swing Probability) What It Does Predicts high-probability swing turning points in gold (XAUUSD) on M5 timeframe. Enters at swing lows (BUY) and swing highs (SELL) using 54 ML features across 7 analysis systems. Entry Logic
- M1 data → resample to M5 + H1
- Compute 54 features (swing structure, fractals, volatility, geometry, liquidity, candle behavior, HTF context)
- XGBoost model predicts: BUY / SELL / NEUTRAL
- If BUY/SELL → enter at market price
- No bias engine filter — ASP is self-contained Exit Logic (Fixed) Exit Condition TP Price reaches 1x ATR from entry SL Price reaches 2x ATR from entry Timeout 6 bars (30 min) — closes at market price Position Sizing
- 1 position at a time
- Lot = 0.01 × (balance / $20)
- DD > 10% → lot halved
- No cap (scales infinitely with equity) Why It Works
- SMC-based: 98.3% of entries are reversals after liquidity sweeps/fakeouts
- Choppy-immune: 88% of time predicts NEUTRAL (no setup = no trade)
- High win rate: 88-90% (TP is 1x ATR, SL is 2x ATR — TP is closer)
- Fast timeout: Cuts losers in 30 min, doesn't hold stale trades Risk:Reward
- Risk per trade: 2x ATR
- Reward per trade: 1x ATR
- R:R = 1:0.5 (losing more per trade than gaining)
- Compensated by 88-90% win rate → still highly profitable Trade Frequency
- ~2,500 trades/year (~10/day)
- ~6% signal rate (enters on ~6% of M5 bars)
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