Predictions of the FIFA World Cup 2026

Introduction

This project, using Hex, aims to predict the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The following data was used:

• International football results from 1872 to 2025
• FIFA World Cup 2026 Match Data (Unofficial)

Steps

The notebook and app first perform an exploratory analysis to verify the data's accuracy and remove duplicates or invalid data. Then, the prediction was made. The logic was as follows:

1. For each group stage match, its head-to-head record was compared to determine the likely winner or draw.
2. Each group was calculated to determine each team's position for the subsequent stages.
3. For the knockout rounds, from the Round of 32 onward, there had to be a winner, either in regular time (or extra time) or, in case of a draw, the probability of winning in a penalty shootout was analyzed.
4. This led to the final, which Brazil won and Belgium finished as runner-up (both very likely outcomes).

Considerations

• Changing country names was not considered, as they are not footballing powerhouses (past or present) and it wouldn't have changed the result. Russia could have been the country, but it is excluded from all FIFA competitions.
• No comparison was made between teams from the same continent. For example, if Belgium played Senegal and there was no prior history between them, Belgium wasn't compared to other African teams, since countries are very different even within a continent (just compare Brazil and Argentina with the rest of South America).

Technology

I used Hex as the platform, and I was able to design the notebooks using its agent, with some minor modifications I made using Python, adding descriptions and titles. I published the app, and it is available for review (requires a Hex account).

Built With

• hex