COVID19 The lack of understanding of population regarding the quarantine : "when can we go back to real life?" "why not now, as people who where sick at the beginning of quarantine are already dead or cured..?", "Will this end at a time ?",... We cannot respond to all of questions but if people can see modelizations of the curvature actualized they could better represent what is going on

What it does

It simulates the curbature of the epidemic from the number of death. We would like to add other sources (like people saying they are sick on twitter for instance). We want to put it on a website so that people can see the modelization actualizing while the number of death is actualizing

How we built it

We are modelizing the curvature of the epidemic using SIR method, and optimizing the parameters (which are unknown) using real data sets. You can find our code on :

Challenges we ran into

optimization was difficult as we didn't know what the parameters look like in real life.

Accomplishments that I'm proud of

We managed to have a curvature that follows the number of death til now, even if doesn't seem to be a possible scenario.

What we learned

Python : optimization, django,.. Working in team from home !

What's next for Epidemic forecasting on live datasets

We want to put our results on the website so that our optimization updates everyday with the data

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