Deep study and deep learning for Covid-19 Research

Inspiration

Coronavirus related news overwhelming us. So many dashboard are there, unfortunately very few has the study in depth. I built this web site using mathematic SIR/SEIR/MSEIR model, and also stochastic branching model to study all countries and regions in the world. Typically, researchers use one model just study one or two countries, then publish a scientific paper on peer reviewed journals. I am using all models available, plus one model I invented myself, to study all the countries in the world, and publish the results to my website.

What it does

my website JackWu.us is built on huge data collected from varies sources, then integrated into SQL database, then I use Python to do deep study and machine learning to analyze the data. My project did forecasting using 4 different types of tool:

Statistics: I calculated moving average, Bollinger bands

Machine Learning: I did linear regression, logistic regression, differential equation solution regress, curve fitting

Compartment model: I did ODE/PDE curve fitting

Stochastic Branching: I did numeric simulation.

My own model: my own model can predict the second wave of covid-19, and also according to the model parameters to classifying the countries into 4 different groups.

How I built it

I built it from collecting the data, integrating the data, to presenting the data, modelling the data, training the data, all the way to predict data, use SQL database, Python Panda, NumPy, SciPy, to Microsoft Asp.net MVC and webpages, also Chart.js to make graphs

Challenges I ran into

It seems none of the existing model is good enough. Covid-19 is very difficult to predict. There are so many factors there, anyhow, partial differential equation, plus stochastic process, plus machine learning methods, make the model better and better

Accomplishments that I'm proud of

Huge tons of jobs done in a short of time although not perfect. I will continue working on it.

What I learned

Work under pressure and deliver on time.

What's next for Deep study and deep learning for Covid-19 Research

Built With

• asp.net
• c#
• curve-fitting
• machine-learning
• python
• regression
• sir
• sql