Corona Spatial risk analysis

Corona Risk Model Accuracy

Inspiration

The worldwide spread of coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is posing a serious threat to the life of human civilization. More than fifty thousand people are getting affected every day throughout the globe. Peoples are scared everywhere, business and commerce became stopped and the economy became immobilized. It is the time now we fight back against this deadly virus.

What it does

The spatial analysis will help the people to understand the actual facts of spreading the virus and the reason for its high mortality rate in different regions. In addition, it will assist to avoid rumor by analyzing the original details. We are providing micro-scale risk analysis which is updating continuously with the number of coronavirus people. So, it will further warn the people and refrain from affecting them by avoiding highly risky areas. In this way, we are hoping to reduce the number of new people getting infected by a coronavirus.

How we built it

We have collected the data for the last four weeks from the severely infected area of Germany and Italy. We took into consideration several risk factors such as geographical location, availability of easy mobility, population density, the age distribution of the people, number of health care facilities in every area and temperature variability. We tried to find a correlation between the risk factors and the number of people affecting in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th week as well as the death rates.

Challenges we ran into

The real challenges were to find the authentic data and to correlate them. Added to, it was very difficult to manage the workload within such a short time frame.

Accomplishments that we're proud of

Though the time frame was short for such an analysis we are very proud of what we accomplished within the duration. We were able to identify two prime factors each responsible for the acute spread of the virus (i.e.; population density and population mobility) and high mortality rate (i.e.; the number of aged people and the availability of health care facility in a region). Furthermore, we are providing the first real warning system by identifying the risky areas in the order of magnitude for risk.

What we learned

We have learned to manage the workload within a specific time period and respond immediately to an emergency situation like the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic.

What's next for Corona Spatial risk analysis

Currently, we conducted our analysis for only Germany and Italy. We are planning to do it gradually for the other countries as well. The aim is to aware of the people why this virus is spreading rapidly. We are also working to improve the accuracy of our early warning system in order to deliver authentic information and warn people to avoid risky areas for SARS-CoV-2.