Coal2Core

Inspiration

The climate crisis and surging electricity demand from AI data centers are accelerating fossil fuel use. Coal2Core explores turning retiring U.S. coal plants into sites for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) to provide clean, reliable power exactly where the grid needs it most.

What it does

Coal2Core evaluates all 374 active U.S. coal power plants for their suitability to host SMRs. It scores each site based on key factors like grid infrastructure, cooling water access, land availability, population buffers, seismic risk, and environmental conditions. An interactive map lets users explore the top-ranked sites, filter by score, and understand the methodology.

How we built it

We developed a machine learning model to generate suitability scores for each coal plant. To handle the small dataset and ensure reliability, we used a Monte Carlo simulation engine that runs 1,000+ perturbation tests to validate rankings under uncertainty. The project combines a Next.js frontend, Mapbox-powered interactive map, and a Python ML backend.

Challenges we ran into

With limited real-world data on coal-to-nuclear conversions, overfitting was a major issue. Early models like XGBoost performed well on training data but didn’t generalize. We switched to a more stable SVR model and used nested cross-validation plus Monte Carlo simulations to create trustworthy, uncertainty-aware results. Curating and verifying data from multiple sources was also a significant effort.

Accomplishments we're proud of

We built a transparent, reproducible methodology grounded in DOE research. Achieving strong model performance on a small dataset without overfitting, and designing a Monte Carlo layer that tests ranking stability under uncertainty, are key wins. The result is a credible tool for identifying viable coal-to-SMR conversion sites.

What we learned

We gained deep insight into building reliable ML models for small, real-world datasets and using Monte Carlo methods to manage uncertainty. We also learned how rapidly AI-driven electricity demand is growing and why clean firm power is critical — plus how little public awareness exists around nuclear energy’s strong safety and environmental record.

What's next for Coal2Core

We plan to expand the dataset for better accuracy, add real-time grid data, incorporate SMR vendor compatibility, and include state-specific regulatory insights. Ultimately, Coal2Core aims to become a living platform that tracks retiring coal plants and highlights the best opportunities for clean nuclear conversion before those sites are lost.