How many pounds worth of bitcoins do you need now to have N pounds of bitcoins next week, with 95% confidence? Our app can tell you.

We started off joking around about cryptocurrency hacks, and why you would use bitcoin. But then we remembered that most people use bitcoins as an intermediary. In particular, they buy bitcoins and both parties intend to convert them back in to local currencies. But what of the price of bitcoins in the meantime? As a still-volatile commodity, it can be hard to tell how much a bitcoin will be worth in the future.

Our app doesn't tell you the future value of a bitcoin (if it could, we'd be making money as fast as we could trade, not presenting here.) But what we can do is tell you the maximum expected loss in value of the bitcoin over a given time span. This allows you to reduce wallet costs by accurately predicting how many bitcoins you need to hold to handle potential transactions.

The target user is someone who wants to use a secure cryptocurrency, but doesn't want to get involved with trading.

My favorite part was the econometric aspects of the code. Considering questions of ergodicity with respect to the interactions of other currencies (which we decided to assume) to considering whether neural networks or Bayesian weighting would be better (the latter had better results after testing), delving into finance and economics in a very applied sense brought joy and many hours of interesting work and research. It's not obvious from the outside, but getting that to work was most of the fun and trouble.

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