The rough goal is to provide a guide line with a collection of methods for analyzing the excess mortalities for certain countries or groups. This could include software solutions as well as examples. The first goal is to analyse the data with the now given information. A second goal is the assessing of the data after the pandemic and in the subsequent years. Interesting questions for these kind of analysis: How can other effects like the intensity of the flu wave? How can effects like a the harvesting effect (a lower than mean after higher than mean mortality) be detected or/and quantified? How can effects of political measures be detected in the data?
Why mortality? Mortality data is available for several countries for many years and it can reflect the dynamics of the pandamic which can help to understand it.
What is available? Of course the analysis of excess mortality is not a new. Same has been done for example to assess the impact of heatwaves or cold polls or epidemic events. (Hence, a collection of references to similar research could be included in the guidline.) Anyway, a consistent guideline, collection of methods and maybe tailored software solutions could help persons and institutions to do their own analysis.
I am happy about any kind of input! I do not have any experience in epidemic modelling, so if you have and you see some mistake or you have ideas what could be done additionally or instead let me know! Also my experience with time series is rather theoretical, so I am happy about people with practical experience. In any case, I am sure everybody could learn from this project!
I am looking forward to work with you!
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